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Look for college hoops games where a ranked team is the underdog, and bet against them.
Now that March Madness is about to start, it's time to judge my performance. It hasn't been a bad year, I'm 53-41-3. I've been playing a combination of systems, with varying success.
I'm going to share one very simple regular season system that I used. It takes maybe ten minutes per weekend to find the games, and the teams to back.
No, it's not flipping a coin, or backing whichever animal would lose in a fight when two animal teams face each other (although I have a friend who swears by this system for the NBA).
Look for games between nationally ranked teams and unranked opponents. There will be plenty of these, but we're looking for games where the unranked opponent opens as the favourite playing at home.
Yes, you read that right.
No, I'm not losing my mind.
Most people's gut reaction when confronted with this situation is "no way I'm betting against one of the best teams in the country, especially when their opponents are spotting them a couple of points". This means that the lines are skewed.
But, if the books are willing to install a nationally ranked team as an underdog, there must be something seriously wrong with their chances. Given this, and the public's belief in the superiority of nationally ranked teams, mid way through last year I forced myself to make a few small bets on this system.
Before long though, I started loving this system.
Why?
A 14-3 ATS record so far this year for me.
Good enough for ya?
This was a better season than normal, but this has been better than .500 every year for the last 15.
2005's results (in all cases, backing the unranked team) and using closing lines.
11 December
Louisville (13) vs Florida -3 = 74-70 L
Wisconsin (24) vs Marquette +1* = 54-63 W
29 December
Alabama (13) vs Wisconson -7 = 62-76 W
George Washington (2) vs W. Virginia -3.5 = 65-71 W
5th January
Alabama (18) vs Vanderbilt -2 = 56-70 W
W. Virginia (23) vs Villanova -4 = 46-84 W
8th January
Iowa (15) vs Ohio State -3 = 69-81 W
10th January
Connecticut (9) vs Oklahoma-4.5 = 65-77 W
11th January
Alabama (21) vs Arkansas -5 = 64-61 L
16th January
Georgia Tech (8) vs N.C. State+1.5* = 68-76 W
20th January
Marquette (25) vs DePaul-3 = 72-85 W
30th January
Georgia Tech (21) vs Maryland = 71-79 W
5th February
Alabama (14) vs Florida-4 = 54-85 W
8th February
Boston College (4) vs Notre Dame-1 = 65-68 W
12th February
Pacific (24) vs Utah State-8.5 = 64-63 (L)
20th February
Pittsburgh (15) vs Villanova-5 = 72-80 W
26th February
Texas Tech (25) vs Texas A&M-2.5 = 63-85 W
*opened as a favourite,
The observant amongst you will notice that we're betting against some teams with good records, perhaps even unbeaten at the time we bet againt them. However, I think the results speak for themselves.
For the regular season, this is a hell of a powerful system, and I don't think that's going to change in the near future, since it takes some condfidence to bet on good teams to lose.
This system does not work post season, but when college basketball starts again, look for ranked teams vs unranked teams. If the unranked team is at home, and favoured when the lines open, then bet on the unranked team to cover the spread (or wuss out, and just take them on a money line bet).Comments on NCAA History Lesson |
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NFL History
In the NFL, underdogs playing at home have a history of beating the spread.
Nascar Basics
You might only watch NASCAR for the crashes, but there's some good betting value out there too.
More NFL thoughts
Andrew Patterson discusses a couple of NFL systems, and injury scares.
Some thoughts on the NBA
AP shares a few random thoughts about the NBA
Soccer Betting
A very brief introduction to soccer betting (includes a nice system though)
NCAA History Lesson
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