Expected Value and Risk Aversion
Expected Value isn't as simple as we think
Welcome to my second article on economics / game theory.
People value money. Everyone who hasn't taken a vow of poverty would rather have more money than less (Duhh). However, people value risk differently. For example. Let's say you won a magical prize from happyland. Would you rather have $100 or a 50% shot at 200? The Expected Value (EV) is the same, so if you're a good poker player, you would say "it depends".
Actually, good poker players seem to say "it depends" a lot. But anyway. That example isn't very interesting. But what if the choice was between $100 and a 50% shot at S201? Technically, the EV is marginally higher if you take the coin toss. However, many people will give up the 50 cents in order to get a sure $100. They are what we would call risk averse.
The opposite is of course, risk seeking. These people would take a coin toss for $199 over a sure $100. Well, in theory anyway.
Article continued on: Best Poker Offers
People value money. Everyone who hasn't taken a vow of poverty would rather have more money than less (Duhh). However, people value risk differently. For example. Let's say you won a magical prize from happyland. Would you rather have $100 or a 50% shot at 200? The Expected Value (EV) is the same, so if you're a good poker player, you would say "it depends".
Actually, good poker players seem to say "it depends" a lot. But anyway. That example isn't very interesting. But what if the choice was between $100 and a 50% shot at S201? Technically, the EV is marginally higher if you take the coin toss. However, many people will give up the 50 cents in order to get a sure $100. They are what we would call risk averse.
The opposite is of course, risk seeking. These people would take a coin toss for $199 over a sure $100. Well, in theory anyway.
Article continued on: Best Poker Offers
Related Articles
The Penguin's guide to shorthanded poker
The Poker Penguin, a good friend of mine, shares his wisdom on the short-handed game
"Expected Value and Risk Aversion" User Comments
No comments posted yet.
What are your comments on this article?
